Germany and Russian energy, econtribute paper, 35 pp, March 2022…/ECONtribute_PB_028_2022.pdf

What if? The economic effects for Germany of a stop of energy imports from Russia
Rüdiger Bachmann, David Baqaee, Christian Bayer, Moritz Kuhn, Andreas Löschel,
Benjamin Moll, Andreas Peichl, Karen Pittel, Moritz Schularick*
7 March 2022

This article discusses the economic effects of a potential cut-off of the German economy
from Russian energy imports. We show that the effects are likely to be substantial but
manageable. In the short run, a stop of Russian energy imports would lead to a GDP
decline in range between 0.5% and 3% (cf. the GDP decline in 2020 during the pandemic
was 4.5%

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